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Around 630 finance jobs have been relocated out of Britain since the Brexit vote – significantly lower than banks warned – according to a survey.
The companies said they were hoping for a last-minute political deal that would save access to the EU’s £14.9tn-a-year economy.
But in the run up to Brexit day, banks cautioned that under a “hard” divorce settlement around 5,800 would move out of the UK.
The findings come in a survey by Reuters of financial institutions based in Britain.
Many business chiefs fear Britain could be heading for a chaotic split that would spook financial markets and dislocate trade flows across Europe and beyond.
Some politicians on both sides of negotiations put the odds of talks collapsing at more than 50%.
But some forecasts on job losses have ranged from extremes.
Bank bosses were said to have ‘moved through the five stages of grief’
The Brussels-based Bruegel research group claimed in February 2017 that 30,000 roles could move abroad under a hard Brexit.
While the London Stock Exchange warned the previous month the figure could be 232,000.
The survey by Reuters found financial institutions say they expect the total figure under that scenario to be 5,800.
That is 500 more than the last survey, carried out in March, but 5,000 less than the first survey in September 2017.
Many finance companies are hoping for a last-minute deal with Brussels
Results were based on answers from 134 of the biggest or most internationally-focused banks, insurers, asset managers, private equity firms and exchanges to a survey conducted by between 1 August and 15 September.
HSBC, which has publicly said up to 1,000 jobs could move to Paris, has so far not moved any staff, a source at the bank said as part of the survey.
Royal Bank of Scotland, which expects to move 150 to Amsterdam, also has not moved any employees, an RBS source said.
Goldman Sachs, which has taken a new office in Frankfurt and plans to move 500 people to Europe, has only moved or hired about 100 so far.
JP Morgan, which has publicly said up to 4,000 jobs could move, said recently in a staff memorandum it has only asked “several dozen” staff to move.
Iain Anderson, the executive chairman of Cicero, a public affairs company, which represents many finance companies, said the impact of Brexit was likely to be much more modest than initially predicted.
He said early estimates were made by executives in a period of unprecedented emotional turmoil following the vote, adding: “They have now moved through the five stages of grief.”
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