Sir Patrick Vallance, the Government’s chief scientific adviser, warned coronavirus infections were doubling every seven days and said this trend could result in 49,000 cases per day by October 13. He added this could then equate to more than 200 deaths per-day by November. Speaking alongside England’s chief medical officer Chris Whitty on September 21, Sir Patrick emphasised this was “was “not a prediction” but instead it showed “how quickly this can move”.
The stark message to the British public used data from September 15 when the UK reported 3,105 coronavirus cases.
A week later on September 22, the UK reported a sharp increase to 4,926 cases of coronavirus, but this was significantly lower than double.
Yesterday, the UK reported 6,024 new infections but had cases continued to double each week that figure would have been between 8,000-9,000.
The latest data suggests the number of infections is doubling between every nine and 14 days, rather than the seven which had been feared.
If the virus doubles every nine days, the daily figure on October 13 would be around 32,000 – 17,000 below the number put forward by Sir Patrick.
Meanwhile, if the virus spreads at a slower rate and every 14 days, this could lead to around 18,000 daily cases by the middle of October.
Appearing alongside England’s chief medical officer Chris Whitty, earlier this month, Sir Patrick presented the public with a series of graphs showing how quickly the virus could spread if it was not controlled.
He said: “At the moment we think the epidemic is doubling roughly every seven days.
“If, and that’s quite a big if, but if that continues unabated, and this grows, doubling every seven days, if that continued you would end up with something like 50,000 cases in the middle of October per day.
“Fifty-thousand cases per day would be expected to lead a month later, so the middle of November say, to 200-plus deaths per day.
“The challenge, therefore, is to make sure the doubling time does not stay at seven days.
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They will also not be able to meet indoors with anyone they do not live with, with extended households suspended.
Bans on households mixing also came into force in Wigan, Stockport, Blackpool and Leeds on Saturday.
Restrictions beyond the “rule of six” rolled out across England are already in force across large swathes of north-west England, West Yorkshire, the North East and the Midlands, as well as parts of west Scotland.
