Neuroscientist Professor Karl Friston has said it is now time to move away from remote call centres and instead rely on local expertise – an approach he described as ‘shoe-leather’ epidemiology. Shadow Health Secretary Jonathan Ashworth was among those taking part in a briefing organised by Independent SAGE, a group of scientists working together to provide independent scientific advice to the UK government and public.
Christina Pagel, Professor of operational research at University College London, told the briefing the nation was “not in a good place” and “on a knife edge”, stressing action needed to be taken immediately to prevent a second wave.
New modelling by Prof Friston, of University College London, suggests the countury has “only two to three weeks” to improve contact tracing before the situation becomes impossible to contain.
Speaking before the briefing, an Independent SAGE spokesman said: “We are in a crisis.
“Infections and hospital admissions are rapidly increasing. The testing system has broken down and it will be weeks before it is sorted.”
The spokesman added: “If nothing changes, there will come a point soon when the situation is so far out of control that the only possible response will be a second national lockdown and our lives will be completely disrupted once again.
“No one wants this to happen. But we can only avoid it if we take urgent action.
“We must take action now to regain control of the pandemic and drive down infections now.
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“In short, a redeployment of resources away from remote ‘call centres’ to local and experienced public health teams who can find, monitor, and support people who have acquired the infection, and their contacts.
“Crucially, this kind of contact tracing can only be done effectively using local knowledge (eg cultural aspects), expertise and detective work.
“It is not dependent on an overstretched testing infrastructure – tests are an important adjunct to identifying cases and may be better deployed for the asymptomatic contacts of confirmed cases.”
Prof Friston’s modelling indicates a doubling of efficacy of the test and trace system from 16 percent to 32 percent will “save 1000s of lives” but the “time to act is now”.
He subsequently told the briefing, in response to a question from Mr Ashworth, the nation was “falling off the knife” and action was crucial within a week to prevent a large number of preventable deaths.
Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) figures showed there was 3,395 additional cases of COVID-19 reported in the UK yesterday.
So far there have been a total of 384,087 confirmed cases in the UK, and 41,794, since the start of the pandemic, according to Johns Hopkins University’s Coronavirus Resource Center in Baltimore in the United States.
Globally, JHU puts the figure at 30,205,226, and the death toll at 946,673.
Independent Sage’s recommendations include:
- Suspending indoor service in pubs and restaurants
- Working from home where possible and no return to workplace until certified COVID-safe
- Limiting indoor socialising to a bubble of three households
- Funding schools to allow smaller, socially-distanced classes and providing digital resources for pupils who have to stay home
- Creating an emergency fund to support all those needing to shield or self-isolate (including those unable to get tested)
