Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon is determined to hold a second referendum on Scottish independence in 2021, despite Prime Minister Boris Johnson firmly resisting pressure from the SNP. The SNP’s goal is for Scotland to leave the UK so the country can rejoin the EU. However, while Brexit might have made the case for Scottish independence stronger, it has also made it practically more difficult.
Scotland would need to apply to join again under Article 49 of the Treaty of the European Union.
New members can only be allowed into the bloc through an unanimous vote from the existing member states and an independent Scotland would undoubtedly ruffle feathers.
Spain is struggling with secession demands itself, from Catalonia, so is unlikely to support a newly independent state.
Many also believe Scotland could be rejected by Brussels due to its current deficit of seven percent of GDP, unless it adopted a strict austerity programme from the EU as well as potentially adopting the euro.
In an exclusive interview with Express.co.uk, constitutional historian Vernon Bogdanor claimed the bloc will not be able to deny Scotland EU entry.
However, he argued Brussels will most likely try to attach harsh terms to discourage Ms Sturgeon.
Prof Bogdanor explained: “Scotland could not be denied entry into the EU because if it goes independent, it will become a liberal democracy.
“The question is what terms they will accept in order to join, as these will probably be quite harsh.
“The EU does not want to encourage separatism in Catalonia and possibly other countries.”
He noted: “They would almost certainly not get their share of Margaret Thatcher’s rebate that the UK got in the Eighties.
“And they might be required to join the euro fairly soon.
“Scotland joining the euro would cause lots of problems because their current budget deficit is around 7 percent. And they would have to reduce it to 3 percent, under current EU rules.
“That would make George Osborne look like Santa Claus, as they would have lots of cuts in public spending and increase in taxation.”
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“Is it really in their interest to have another Greece?”
Dr Jaworski noted that Ms Sturgeon should find something to make Scotland more attractive in the eyes of Brussels.
He added: “The First Minister is trying… with talks about electricity and power.
“But do we have it now? Can we sell it? Who is going to invest in this?
“We don’t even have money to invest in the buses…”
The annual government expenditure and revenue Scotland report (GERS) found Scotland’s fiscal deficit for 2019-20 was 8.6 percent of GDP, up from 7.4 percent the previous year.
