Joe Biden is leading the polls to become President in the US election, holding on to his 10-point lead which has been sustained throughout the race. The Democrat also leads in the majority of swing states, according to The Guardian’s poll tracker. However, it is important to note that in 2016, Mr Trump’s votes were undercounted in swing states, leading to shock when he secured victory. The result of the vote could have a huge impact on the UK post-Brexit, as Professor Stephen Burman tells Express.co.uk.
This is because Mr Biden could deal a huge blow to Prime Minister Boris Johnson over the border in Northern Ireland.
Prof Burman said: “Joe Biden is Irish, so his commitment to a united Ireland would be absolute. If the Brits somehow contravened that and trouble arises on the border, Mr Biden would be furious.
“There are a lot of Irish sympathising politicians in the House of Representatives, and they would scupper a trade deal if Boris Johnson undermined the Good Friday Agreement.
“These things are absolute, the UK has no leverage on this.
“The UK would be finished in their eyes, and they would take retribution potentially across a whole range of policies.
“The British Government really are playing with fire here.
“The Americans will not hesitate to teach us a lesson if we don’t get the Irish border issue right.”
He also warned that the UK could be left adrift if Mr Johnson continues on his current path.
He added: “The first thing would be to trade. They’d have nothing to do with us on trade.
“Washington would possibly downgrade military and intelligence partnership, they’d just say ‘we aren’t giving you this anymore’.
“The US doesn’t have a very high estimate of British capabilities in a military setting.
“What’s left is the UK would simply be ignored.
“No trade deal, the special relationship disintegrates in front of your eyes, a Biden presidency cultivates the EU while the UK is left adrift.”
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Mr Johnson infuriated Brussels in September when he tried to override the withdrawal agreement with the EU.
The Government’s Internal Market Bill sought to make changes to the Northern Ireland protocol, designed to prevent a hard border on the island of Ireland.
Critics claimed that this not only broke international law, but could also undermine the Good Friday Agreement – which was signed in 1998 to preserve an open Irish border.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced last month that the EU will take legal action against the UK.
Former Vice President Biden joined in with the criticism, warning “any trade deal between the US and UK must be contingent upon respect for the [trade] agreement and preventing the return of a hard border. Period”.
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The Democrat once expressed his opposition to Brexit, saying it could “diminish” Washington’s interests in the UK.
He said after the 2016 vote: “Had I been a Member of Parliament, had I been a British citizen, I would have voted against leaving.
“From the US perspective, US interests are diminished with Great Britain not being an integral part of Europe and being able to bring influence.
“There’s growing awareness that Britain played a role in Europe the last 30 years that went well beyond the notion of open borders and trade, being able to influence attitudes.”
Earlier this year, Professor Scott Lucas of Birmingham University explained to Express.co.uk how the House of Representatives is full of politicians who could block a US-UK trade deal over this issue.
The expert on US politics said: “Whatever administration that’s there if you negotiate an agreement, the US Congress will not allow that free trade agreement if there is a hard Irish border, they will not approve it.
“Right now, the Johnson government is in a mess, where they have a provision which prevents a hard border – but if they get rid of that customs line down the Irish Sea we are back to a hard border.
“The UK cannot advance on an agreement with the US until it is clear what is going to be agreed with the EU because of the Irish question.”
