Nicola Sturgeon ‘won’t compromise on independence’ says expert
Nicola Sturgeon told the EU to “leave a light on” for Scotland as the UK left the bloc’s customs union and single market on January 1. The First Minister is determined to secure an independence referendum, get Scotland and out of the UK, and take it back into the EU. Even if the SNP can achieve Scottish secession – there is still debate over how easily Scotland could join the EU, and how difficult it would be. In a March 2020 report, Dr Kirsty Hughes (Director and founder of the Scottish Centre on European Relations) examined the EU’s newest members and the challenges they faced joining the bloc.
Croatia was the most recent addition to the EU, joining in 2013.
However, the country had to wait 10 years to join, having started its application process in 2003.
When Croatia joined the bloc, the country had to implement austerity measures to meet EU criteria for joining – serving as a warning to Scotland.
Romania and Bulgaria also had to wait a long time to join the EU in 2007. They first applied to join in 1995.
In her report, Dr Hughes predicted that Scotland wouldn’t take as long as this to gain entry, but also warned Brexit could extend Ms Sturgeon’s wait.
This is because, the longer Scotland remains in the UK post-Brexit, the more Britain will diverge from EU rules.
Nicola Sturgeon news: Croatia waited ten years to join the EU (Image: getty)
Nicola Sturgeon news: The European Commission could make tough demands (Image: getty)
The Scottish Government are pushing to keep EU rules in as many areas as possible to ensure they are as closely aligned to the bloc as possible, laying the foundations for a smoother transition.
Dr Hughes noted: “If Scotland, at the point of applying to join the EU, had not diverged too much from the EU’s acquis, that it mostly met while it was in the EU and in the UK, then it could expect an accession process that might, at the fastest, take four to five years.”
Another challenge Scotland could yet face is the negotiations to join themselves.
Dr Hughes said that previous candidates have learned “sometimes painfully, that these are not really two-sided negotiations”.
She added: “Accession talks are a process where the EU holds all the cards and is scrutinising each candidate, in great detail, as to whether it comes up to the mark or not.
“It is not a moment or process to ask for several or major exceptions or opt-outs, though there may be some specific issues where some transition or exception will be considered.”
READ MORE: Scotland will have to endure ‘painful’ process to join EU
Nicola Sturgeon news: Sturgeon has won over many in Europe (Image: getty)
David Gow, Editor of Sceptical.scot and Senior Adviser at Social Europe, also highlighted in the report that, like Croatia, austerity measures will likely be needed to bring Scotland in line with EU demands.
The bloc’s criteria states that countries joining the EU must have a deficit of no more than three percent of GDP – or at least work towards this with economic measures.
When Croatia joined, its deficit stood at 5.3 percent as it reeled from the financial crash of 2008.
The annual government expenditure and revenue Scotland report (GERS) found Scotland’s fiscal deficit for 2019-20 was 8.6 percent of GDP, up from 7.4 percent the previous year.
Mr Gow highlights that the country “was rapidly, after its first six months only, put under the EU’s Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP) and then carried out a fiscal squeeze to comply with the deficit conditions”.
However, Mr Gow isn’t convinced Scots are aware how “severe” the demands could be.
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He added: “Here the question is whether the Scottish polity, let alone populace, is aware of how severe the spending squeeze might have to be – coming not that long after a decade of austerity.
“Would an independent Scottish government and civil society be both able and willing to accept strict spending controls/cuts?
“The typical answer that independence will, by itself, trigger an entirely different set of (positive) economic outcomes may be wishful thinking.
“As matters stand, we simply have no way of knowing whether that’s likely or not.”
Philippe Lamberts, a senior MEP and head of the European Greens in Brussels, told Express.co.uk that Scotland would be welcome in the EU, but would have to adopt the euro.
He said in December: “Any new member state has to adopt the euro, I know that the SNP are revisiting their scenario depending on the outcome of a referendum.
“So I don’t think past positions of Nicola Sturgeon or the SNP are reflective of the positions they will take if they apply to join the EU after a referendum.”
